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Presentation_+Global+steel+market+-+the+present+and+the+future.pdf

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Presentation_Globalsteelmarket-thepresentandthefuture

Dr. Uwe Perlitz September 2008 Think Tank of Deutsche Bank Group Global steel market – the present and the future Dr. Uwe Perlitz · September 2008 · Page 2 Crude steel production – today tomorrowB A The global economic environment Focus on individual countries/regionsC ConclusionD Contents Dr. Uwe Perlitz · September 2008 · Page 3 Slowdown in global economic growth 2008: Slowdown in growth, with global gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by “only” a price-adjusted 2.5%-plus (2007: 3.4%) – The dirver of growth – the US – is losing momentum; US GDP to rise only almost 2% – Asia (ex Japan) continues to register above-average growth (7%) – EU growth of 1.3% much slower than in 2007 2009: Growth to remain moderate – global GDP increase of nearly 2.2% will still be higher than at the start of the decade – GDP growth in China will weaken slightly (9%) – but will remain high because of the continued appreciable rise in industrial output and booming export business – India: strong economic growth (7.5%) – industrial sector is weak, but the country should benefit from its strength in the service sector – US: relatively low growth because of low investment activity (1.5%) – EU: further slowdown (nearly 1%) due in part to reduced export momentum Until 2020 global real GDP will grow by only 2 ?% – compared with more than 3% over the past ten years A The global economic environment Dr. Uwe Perlitz · September 2008 · Page 4 Oil price has skyrocketed since start of the millennium A The global economic environment Annual averages – 2006: USD 66/bbl – 2007: USD 73/bbl – 2008: USD 108/bbl Reasons for oil price rise – Increased global demand – Production problems on the supply side0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Price of Brent Blend USD/barrel Source: Global Insight Dr. Uwe Perlitz · September 2008 · Page 5 Euro still very strong against the US dollar Baseline scenario –USD/EUR exchange rate to hover around 1.50 until end-2008 Downside scenario – USD/EUR