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20050718-Gaming-Anders@ML
United States
In-depth Report Gaming
18 July 2005
David W. Anders Las Vegas Chart Book
Research Analyst, MLPFS
(1) 212 449-2739
David_Anders@ Putting Las Vegas Trends In Perspective
Vincent C. Agro
Research Analyst, MLPFS
(1) 212 449-7140 Reason for Report: Industry Update
Vincent_Agro@
We believe that Las Vegas has been in a very unique period of extremely low supply growth
over the last four years. We believe that the lack of supply has permitted fundamentals to
improve dramatically. However, as returns have improved on Las Vegas’ assets, the city is
again attracting capital. We expect supply growth will begin to pick up in 2007 and
g accelerate in 2008 and 2009. We believe that this will be the primary challenge to future
valuations awarded Las Vegas centric stocks. Below we highlight our key takeaways.
• Well Below Trend line Supply Growth over the Last 3 Years. Since 2001 the number
n of hotel rooms, gaming devices and tables have increased at anemic compound average
growth rates (CAGR) of 1.3%, -2.9%, and 0.5%, respectively, versus long-term CAGRs
i
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