经济增长论文：基于排放与经济增长关系的我国参与国际碳减排研究.docVIP

经济增长论文：基于碳排放与经济增长关系的我国参与国际碳减排研究 【中文摘要】面对大气中碳排放量的增加而引起全球气候变化问题，碳减排是减缓气候变化的有效措施。目前我国参与国际碳减排面临着很大的压力，在国际碳减排谈判中尽可能争取发展权益，有利于保护我国经济发展。首先运用VAR分析方法，对我国20年的碳排放量与经济增长两者变动关系进行分析。分析结果显示，我国碳排放量与GDP之间存在协整关系和双向的格兰杰因果关系，两者之间相互促进；对两变量进行动态关系分析发现，短期内碳排放量与GDP互相呈推动的影响，长期会趋于平稳。利用回归分析法，对我国未来的碳排放量进行预测。然后结合国际利益格局，建立了两个“囚徒困境”模型，即经济发展水平相当的两个国家之间和经济发展水平差距很大的两个国家之间的博弈。通过重复博弈分析，确定了无限重复博弈中参与各方的贴现因子，得出了“为了自身利益，发达国家较发展中国家更急于开展国际气候合作”的结论，而且在国际碳减排谈判中我国要坚持总量谈判，这对未来我国参与国际碳减排谈判提供有利的参考价值。最后对策分为两部分，一部分是在经济增长和碳排放之间寻求平衡，在经济快速增长的前提下尽量减少碳排放量；将碳减排作为经济增长方式转型的机遇。另一部分我国参与国际碳减排的策略：坚持国际利益及正确评估碳减排责任；坚持总量谈判并反对增量谈判；加强与发展中国家的团结和合作；促进国际碳减排机制的建立和完善。 【英文摘要】The increase in carbon emissions in the atmosphere will cause global climatechange。Carbon emission reduction is an effective measure to mitigate climate change.。Our country’s participation in international carbon emission reduction is currently facinga lot of pressure. Firstly, examine the long-run equilibrium relationship and dynamicimpact response between carbon emissions and economic growth by using VAR analysis.Analysis showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China抯carbon emissions and GDP. Dynamic relationship between the two variable analysisshows that GDP can largely explains carbon emission prediction variance while carbonemissions explains some of the GDP prediction variance. Finally, using the regressionanalysis to predict the future carbon emissions.Then according to International pattern of interests, established two損risoner抯dilemma攎odel:game of two countries in the same economic level and countries of biggap. Through analysis of repeated games found the discount factor of participants ininfinite repeated game, conclued揻or it抯 own sake, developing countries are more eagerthan the developed countries in international climate cooperation?And our countryshould insist on the total amount of negotiation in international carbon reductionnegotiation. This would provide a favorable reference value when we take part ininternational