A novel method of quantitative risk assessment based on grid difference of pipeline sections.pdf

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A novel method of quantitative risk assessment based on grid difference of pipeline sections.pdf

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A novel method of quantitative risk assessment based on grid difference of pipeline sections

Safety Science 59 (2013) 219–226Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Safety Science journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/locate /ssc iA novel method of quantitative risk assessment based on grid difference of pipeline sections0925-7535/$ - see front matter 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. /10.1016/j.ssci.2013.04.012 ? Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 E-mail addresses: maleinju@ (L. Ma), lcheng@ (L. Cheng). 1 Co-corresponding author. Tel.: +86 25Lei Ma a,?, Yongshu Li b, Lei Liang b, Manchun Li a, Liang Cheng a,1 a Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, bGIS Engineering Center, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Chinaa r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 22 July 2012 Revised 17 March 2013 Accepted date 28 April 2013 Available online 26 May 2013 Keywords: Network model Grid difference of pipeline sections (GDPSs) Pipeline fatal length Quantitative risk assessment Risk contour linea b s t r a c t The growing demand of the urban natural gas pipeline makes the security problem of in-use pipelines attract more and more concern. Risk assessment and management for urban natural gas pipeline network is the effective way to guarantee its safety running. This paper focuses on a method for quantitative risk assessment for urban natural gas pipeline network based on grid difference of pipeline sections (GDPSs), introduces the city gas pipeline network model, defines the pipeline fatal length and analyzes gas net- work accident probability and accident consequence of unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), fire ball combustion, jet flame. The outcome of the quantitative method is the risk contour line and then can get corresponding protective area according to risk acceptable criteria. Finally, the proposed method is applied to an urban pipe network. It is proved that is suitable for the urban natural gas pipeline net- work and can provide d