Abstract Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques with Classical Statistical Models in Pre.pdf
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Abstract Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques with Classical Statistical Models in Pre
Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques with Classical Statistical Models
in Predicting Health Outcomes
Xiaowei Songa, Arnold Mitnitskib,c, Jafna Coxb, Kenneth Rockwooda,b
a Geriatric Medicine Research Unit, QEII Heath Sciences Centre, Canada
b Department of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Canada
c Faculty of Computer Science, Dalhousie University, Canada
Abstract
Several machine learning techniques (multilayer and sin-
gle layer perceptron, logistic regression, least square lin-
ear separation and support vector machines) are applied
to calculate the risk of death from two biomedical data
sets, one from patient care records, and another from a
population survey. Each dataset contained multiple
sources of information: history of related symptoms and
other illnesses, physical examination findings, laboratory
tests, medications (patient records dataset), health atti-
tudes, and disabilities in activities of daily living (survey
dataset). Each technique showed very good mortality pre-
diction in the acute patients data sample (AUC up to 0.89)
and fair prediction accuracy for six year mortality (AUC
from 0.70 to 0.76) in individuals from epidemiological da-
tabase surveys. The results suggest that the nature of data
is of primary importance rather than the learning tech-
nique. However, the consistently superior performance of
the artificial neural network (multi-layer perceptron) indi-
cates that nonlinear relationships (which cannot be dis-
cerned by linear separation techniques) can provide addi-
tional improvement in correctly predicting health out-
comes.
Keywords:
Health status, Machine learning, Classification, ROC curves.
Introduction
The prediction of health outcomes from available data is an
important problem in health research and health management.
It is usually assessed by calculating scores/indices for risk
stratification [1]. Conventionally, such scores are based on
statistical models, such as logis
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