应用层次贝斯模型研究气候变化对威塔流域流量的影响.pdfVIP

Journal ofResources and Ecology nu a o 町 ， ‘ 44t惨 叫 川 剧 町4 7 7 倍 。 7尸 句 h p O M M 矶 45 制 阳 n 2=EUHc m = 皿 m a 2 = 刷 α M U M - - 叫 阳 叫 而1.3 NO.2 -... Application of a Full Hierarchical Bayesian Model in Assessing Streamflow Response to a Climate Change Scenario at the Coweeta Basin, NC, USA WUWei飞 James S. CLARK and James M. VOSE2 1 Nicholas School ofthe Environment. Duke Unívers町，Durh棚， NC 27708. USA; 2 USDA-Forest Servi饵， Coweeta Hydro1ogic Laboratory, Otto, NC 28763, USA Abstract: We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian (HB) model to simulate streamfiow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilated multiple data sources and accounted for uncertaínties from data, parameters and model structures. Full predictive distributíons for streamfiow from the Bayesían analysis índicate not only íncreasing drought, with substantial decrease in fall and summer fiows , and soil moísture conte时， but also increase in the frequency of 击。od events when they were ?t with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and Generalized Pareto Distribution GPD) under this doubled CO 2 climate scenario compared to the current climate scenario. Full predictive distributions based on the hierarchical Bayesian model, compared to determinístic point estimates , is capable of providing rícher information to facilitate development of adaptation strategy to changing climate for a sustainable water resource management. Keywords: hierarchical Bayes; hydrological modeling; climate change; uncertainty; hydrological extremes 1 Introduction Potential 刊lnerability of freshwater supplies to climate change is underscored by the recent widespread droughts and floods over the world. Understanding how the hydrologic cycle responds and contributes to global wanning is needed to anticipate security of 仕esh water supply and assess risks of the resílíence of ecosystem services, natural