CH10SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION -cont.-商务统计,英文版幻灯片.pptVIP

Business StatisticsBEO 1106;EVALUATING SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION;Graph the paired observations of X and Y.;Using Excel:;Find and interpret the coefficient of determination.;Just as the sampling distribution of the sample mean, X-bar, depends on the the mean, standard deviation and shape of the X population, the sampling distributions of the β0-hat and β1-hat least squares estimators depend on the properties of the {Yj } sub-populations (j=1,…, n).;xi;are standard normal random variables.;and;Hence;Determine the 95% confidence interval estimate of β1.; The sampling distributions of the β0-hat and β1-hat least squares estimators can also be used for testing the regression coefficients. ;The question suggests that H0 : β1= 0 and HA : β1? 0, so β0,1= 0. ;Ex 2: (Example 1 of week 9) Pat Statsdud postulated that the longer one studied, the better one’s grade. To test this theory, Pat regressed final mark (Y) on study time (X) and obtained the following sample regression equation:; If the fit of the sample regression equation is satisfactory, it can be used to predict the dependent variable or to estimate its mean value.;INTRODUCTION TO TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; Trend: The long-term general change in the level of the data with a duration of longer than a year.; Seasonal variations: Regular wavelike fluctuations of constant length, repeating themselves within a period of no longer than a year.;Peak;However, while seasonal variations are absolutely regular and occur over calendar periods no longer than a year, cyclical variations might and do change both in their intensity (amplitude) and duration, and they last longer than a year.; The four components of a time series (T: trend, S: seasonal, C: cyclical, R: random) can be combined in different ways. Accordingly, the time series model used to describe the observed data (Y) can be ; These time series have an increasing linear trend component, but