estimationofspatial-temporaldistributionofthedepthto.pptVIP

A Statistical Method for Recovering the Depth to Shallow Groundwater Table in China;Background Data Methodology Validation Application Summary;在全球总水量中，海洋占97%以上，偏远而难以利用的两极冰帽及冰川约占2%，其余不到1%才是人类可取用的水资源，而其中地下水的储存总量居冠。 地下水的过量开采会造成地下水位的大幅下降，引起地面沉降。地下水位过高会对农作物生长不利，造成渍害。因此，研究地下水位的动态对国计民生具有重大意义。 ;气候条件、植被地形和人类活动的变化能引起地下水埋深时空分布的变化；反之，大尺度地下水埋深的变化，导致土壤含水量、地表径流和基流的改变，进一步影响下垫面的蒸散发和低层大气感热和潜热的分配，从而对气候产生影响。 估计浅层地下水埋深变化对水资源研究、陆面过程模拟、陆地生态系统及陆气相互作用的研究具有重要意义。 ;Transfer function-noise (TFN) models parameter transfer method. ;Data;Locations of the meteorological stations;Locations of wells interpolated into 60×60 km2 grids ;MethodologyⅠ: Calibration;TFN model;Input: precipitation surplus (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). The instantaneous evaporative demand (mm/s) is calculated following Jarvis and McNaughton (1986):;TFN model;A linear discrete stochastic system ;If no observation taken at time t;Running the Kalman filter for the calibration period with a parameter set;Identification of TFN model Transform data to improve normality and stationarity, and determine parameters which will be calibrated. ;Methodology Ⅱ: Parameter Transfer;1 Tropical climate 2 Dry, cold climate 3 Rainy, midlatitude climate 4 Continental climate with hot summer 5 Continental climate with cool summer 6 Continental climate with short cool summer;聚类 (clustering);高斯混合模型(GMM)(Mixture of Gaussians Model);;Expectation-Maximum likelihood (EM) Algorithm;EM Algorithm;;;Validation of TFN models;Estimation and 95% confidence intervals of the depth to groundwater table for the four grids ;Autoregressive parameter of transfer model ;Autoregressive parameter of noise model;Cross Validation;Time series of errors for cross validation. (a) ME(t); (b) RMSE(t); (c) MAE(t) ;;;;Transfer function-noise (TFN) models are calibrated by SCE-UA method coupled with Kalman filter in each observed grids. Parameters for gauged grids are transferred to ungauged grids b