L6 效用函数.ppt

L6 效用函数 (Modeling the preference with utility);学习目标;6 效用函数 (Modeling the preference with utility);6.1 期望收益理论的不足;Example 1: EMV;Limitation of EMV: Thus according to the EMV criterion you should develop design 2, but would this really be your preferred course of action? There is a 30% chance that design 2 will fail and lead to a loss of $6 million. If your company is a small one or facing financial problems then these sort of losses might put you out of business. Design 1 has a smaller chance of failure, and if failure does occur then the losses are also smaller. Remember that this is a one-off decision, and there is therefore no chance of recouping losses on subsequent repetitions of the decision. Clearly, the risks of design 2 would deter many people. The EMV criterion therefore fails to take into account the attitude to risk of the decision maker.;Example 2: 圣彼得堡悖论(St. Petersburg Paradox/game);Example 2: 圣彼得堡悖论(St. Petersburg Paradox/game);圣彼得堡悖论的解释1： ;圣彼得堡悖论的解释2：;圣彼得堡悖论的解释3：;圣彼得堡悖论的解释4：;小结：期望收益理论的不足;6.2 基数效用与序数效用(cardinal utility ordinal utility);6.2 基数效用与序数效用(cardinal utility ordinal utility);基数效用论者将效用区分为总效用（Total Utility，TU）和边际效用（Marginal Utility，MU）： 总效用(TU): 是指消费者在一定时间内从一定数量的商品的消费中所得到的效用量的总和。 边际效用(MU): 是指消费者在一定时间内增加一单位商品的消费所得到的效用量的增量。;一、基数效用和边际效用分析法;(1)总效用TU与边际效用MU的关系：MU=dTU/dQ;(2) 边际效用递减规律 (Law of diminishing marginal utility);(2) 边际效用递减规律 (Law of diminishing marginal utility);一、基数效用和边际效用分析法;二、序数效用和无差异曲线;(1) 理性决策者的偏好三大基本假设;(2)无差异曲线indifference curves;处于同一条无差异曲线上的两个点：两种商品的组合不同，但效用水平相同;0;0;0;(3) 边际替代率：MRS(Marginal Rate of Substitution of Commodities);(3) 边际替代率递减规律;(3) 边际替代率与边际效用的关系;(4) 无差异曲线的特例1: MRS＝常数;(4) 无差异曲线的特例2: MRS=∞;1、预算线：在收入与商品价格既定的条件下，消费者所能购买到的两种商品数量最大组合的线。又叫消费可能线、价格线。;(5) 预算线方程;把无差异曲线与消费可能线合在一个图上；;基数效用 vs. 序数效用;6.3 VNM效用函数存在性公理;效用函数定义;VNM效用函数存在性公理;VNM效用函数存在性公理;式(3.3)推导说明:;效用有界性说明：过马路决策;效用函数的存在性;6.4 效用函数的构造;Decision tree of the example;The EMV criterion ;Utility function;Utility function (cont.);A typical elicitation session;A typic