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《系统工程》期末考试论文 第  PAGE 1 页 《系统工程》期末考试论文 题目： 决策树法在某企业战略决策中的应用 学 生 姓 名: 学 号: 班 级: 院 系: 任 课 教 师: 2012年12月7日 决策树法在某企业战略决策中的应用 摘要：本文主要研究的内容是决策树法在企业中的应用以及其优点和缺点。观察大部分企业管理实践案例，经常面临着这样一种问题：若干个可行性方案制订出来了，分析一下企业内外部环境，大部分条件是已知的，但还存在一定的不确定因素，每个方案的执行都可能出现几种结果，各种结果的出现有一定的概率，企业决策存在着一定的风险。针对上述问题，用决策树法来解决已被广泛地应用于企业的投资决策之中，此方法有效地控制了决策带来的风险。然而，决策树法应用于全部企业中也会存在一些问题，有待进一步研究和完善，即它无法适用于一些不能用数量表示的决策，而且对各种方案出现的概率的确定有时主观性较大，导致决策失误。 关键词：决策树法；概率；期望值；风险 中图分类号: F272 文献标识码: B Decision tree in some enterprise strategy is decision-making medium application Abstract: the main content of this article is the decision tree in the application in the enterprise and its advantages and disadvantages. Observation of most enterprise management practices, often face such a problem: a number of feasibility scheme set out, analyse the internal and external business environment, most of the conditions are known, but there are still some uncertain factors, each program execution may have several results, various results appear to have certain probability, there exists a certain risk decision making of enterprise. In view of the above question, using the decision tree method to solve has been widely used in enterprise investment decision making, this method effectively controls the decision-making risks. However, the decision tree method is applied to all the enterprises will also exist some problems, needs further research and perfect, that it does not apply to some cannot quantify decision-making, but also for a variety of programs that appear to determine the probability of great subjectivity sometimes, cause decision-making error. Key words: decision tree; probability; expectation; risk; 一、决策树法基本概述 （一）决策树法的含义 决策在企业管理工作中的含义：它是指企业为了达到一定的目标，从两个或两个以上的可行性方案中选择一个合理方案的分析判断过程 如何才能使决策做的更好更合理更有效率，毫