Decision-making under uncertainty model.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 11 Decision-making under uncertainty model ‘I’m not afraid of anything, nor fear of Diuqian, but I am afraid of uncertainty. ‘George Soros say so. This led to the British currency crisis and the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the soul of the Quantum Fund, is still the ‘uncertainty’ as the biggest business rival. He was ‘fear of uncertainty’ is understood that: worried that she can not grasp the subjective uncertainty, rather than expect to operate in an environment of certainty. Companies trying to ‘know ourselves’ on the basis of the decision-making model, the face of increasingly volatile competitive environment will become increasingly complex powerless. How to strategic decision-making under uncertain environment, the disadvantage of uncertainty as the competition advantages of the new market environment for enterprise operators of new challenges. Deal with uncertainties such five levels: maintaining the status quo, ignoring uncertainties; with strength for time, reduce uncertainty; cultivate insight, perceived uncertainty; increased flexibility to adapt to uncertainty; looking for asymmetry and eliminate uncertainty. To maintaining the status quo Uncertainty have a certain objectivity, even if subjective uncertainty can be eliminated, in some cases, may also be impossible to implement, such as the information cost is too high, investment income, and so out of proportion. Buffett’s investment in the stock market rarely missed its being called ‘shares God’, in fact, Buffett’s investment philosophy is very simple: They think that the stock prices are ultimately represented by the stock value of the asset proceeds determined, so His stock selection is to buy undervalued investments are in accordance with the long-term holders of stocks, regardless of how the stock market volatility. Some people have questioned Mr. Buffett did not buy Microsoft stock that year and thus missed an opportunity to make a large profit is not a mista