麦肯锡中国移动总体战略e文版-ppt74页.pptVIP

CONFIDENTIAL;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCES;KEY MESSAGES;KEY MESSAGES;; * Revenues do not equal the product of ARPU as subscriber figures are provided for year end, not average subscribers during a year. Detailed information on the timing of new subscriptions and churn required for the calculation of average subscribers during a given year is not available ** All CAGRs are calculated on the announced data Source: Deutsche Bank; JP Morgan; MII;;CHINA’S MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2001;CHINA’S MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY;0%;MOBILE SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION OF LESS THAN 7% IN 2000, LEAVES SIGNIFICANT ROOM FOR GROWTH;CHINA’S RICHER PROVINCES GENERALLY HAVE MORE SUSCRIBERS AND ARE GREATER PENETRATED…;…WHILE THE POOR WESTERN AND INTERIOR PROVINCES HAVE LESS SUBSCRIBERS AND ARE LESS PENETRATED;KEY MESSAGES;CHINA’S MOBILE OPERATOR LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED SIGNIFICANTLY, CULMINATING IN SECOND BREAKUP OF CHINA TELECOM; Source: Literature search; industry interviews;;OTHER PLAYERS UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN MOBILE LICENSES;EXISTING AND POTENTIAL MOBILE OPERATORS HOLD BROAD BUT DIFFERENT COMPETITIVE POSITIONINGS AND SERVICE OFFERINGS;EACH EXISTING/POTENTIAL MOBILE OPERATOR HAS STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES;MOST OPERATORS HAVE EXISTING PARTNERSHIPS WITH FOREIGN PLAYERS;IN MOBILE TELECOM SERVICE MARKET, CHINA MOBILE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE DOMINANT OPERATOR IN BOTH REVENUE… ;…AND SUBSCRIBER* SHARE; * 02-05 forecast are net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction ** Acquired by CMHK from parent in Oct 2000 Source: JP Morgan; Industry interviews; McKinsey analysis;CHURN IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT WITH BOTH OPERATORS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DRIVEN BY INCREASING COMPETITION WITH IMPACT GREATEST ON CHINA MOBILE;Comments Decreasing trend due to Increased competition and lower tariffs Increased mix of low-value prepaid users Deepening penetration which increases low-