5_定量火灾风险评估d绪论.pptx

Chapter 5Quantitative Fire Risk Assessment;Chapter 5定量火灾风险评估;5.1 本章综述 本章讨论“定量火灾风险评估” ，是指对涉及的火灾危害或火灾场景发生的可能性以及后果的严重程度都进行定量化处理的火灾风险评估。;将火灾场景出现的可能性量值和后果严重程度量值相乘的结果，则为此火灾场景的风险值；将所有可能的火灾场景风险值累加在一起，得到总的火灾风险值（ overall fire risk value ）。总的火灾风险值可与其它火灾安全涉及方案或处方式规范要求的火灾安全设计方案进行比较，以确定最为理想的火灾安全设计方案。 The overall fire risk value can be used for comparisons with those of alternative or code-compliant fire safety designs.;通常有两种方式进行系统的定量化的火灾风险评估： 1. 安全检察表方法，详尽考察一系列的潜在火灾危害（potential fire hazards）及量化其风险；by using a checklist to go through a list of and the quantitative assessment of their fire risks; 2.事件树方法详尽考察一系列的潜在的火灾场景（potential fire scenarios）并量化其风险。;5.1 Overview In this chapter, quantitative fire risk assessment is introduced. The term quantitative fire risk assessment refers to an assessment involving numerical quantifications not only of the probability a fire hazard, or fire scenario occurring, but also the consequences of that fire hazard or fire scenario. ;By multiplying the numerical values of probability and consequence each fire scenario is given a numerical fire risk value. By accumulating the sum of the risk values from all probable fire scenarios we can obtain an overall fire risk value. The overall fire risk value can be used for comparisons with those of alternative or code-compliant fire safety designs.;In general there are two ways to perform systematic quantitative fire risk assessments as follows: 1. by using a checklist to go through a list of potential fire hazards and the quantitative assessment of their fire risks; 2. by using an event tree to go through a set of potential fire scenarios and the quantitative assessment of their fire risks.;In both these methods, the values for the probability and consequence parameters are obtained from statistical data, if they are available, or from subjective judgment, if such data are not available. (仅在我们本课程的讲解中，采用了统计或主观估计的方式，火灾的结果还可以通过确定性的分析计算获得);两种方法如果有统计数据可用，则可能性和后果的数值均采用统计数据；否则则来自主观判断。;5.2 Checklist Method As was