ImpactofParameterVariationonDamageToleranceAnalysis.pptVIP

Digital Twin Workshop Harry Millwater University of Texas at San Antonio Sept. 10-11, 2012 * Topics FAA Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis System Reliability Analysis Sensitivity Methods * Damage Tolerance Methodology Geometry … 5 4 3 2 1 n Sensitivities Insp 1 Insp 2 Time RS EIFS Insp 1 Insp 2 Time Crack Size Loading EVD POD SFPOF CTPOF Material Prop. POF Calculations * Survival t-1 POF Flight t EVD Results * Flight 1 Flight 2 ... Flight n Frechet Gumbel Weibull EVD Results * Usage Location Scale Shape Distribution Single Engine Unpress. Basic Inst. 14.49 1.75 0.01 Frechet Single Engine Unpress. Personal 12.03 1.15 0.00 Gumbel Single Engine Unpress. Executive 11.68 0.90 -0.04 Weibull Twin Engine Unpress. Basic Inst. 13.93 1.42 0.00 Gumbel Twin Engine Unpress. General 12.05 1.16 0.02 Frechet Pressurized 13.41 1.26 0.02 Frechet Agric/Special 12.07 0.94 -0.12 Weibull Special Usage Survey 14.56 1.32 -0.05 Weibull * POF contours Probabilistic Modeling of Systems L. Domyancic, D. Sparkman, and H.R. Millwater, L. Smith and D. Wieland, “A Fast First-Order Method for Filtering Limit States,” 50th AIAA AIAA Nondeterministic Approaches Conference, May 4-7, 2009, Palm Springs, CA, AIAA 2009-2260 Pair-wise Filtering Criteria Pair-wise filtering – neglect limit states that don’t contribute significantly to the system POF relative to the dominant limit states * i = 2,n g1 – dominant limit state, serves as a benchmark Filtering Procedure Pair-wise comparison of each limit state with dominant Each limit state is assigned a filtering error, i.e. the relative error incurred if the limit state were filtered * is calculated using the bivariate normal User decides how much error to allow and set tolerance (typical values: 1E-4 – 1E-6) Second Order Bounds Examine the cumulative effect of the filtered limit states using 2nd order bounds Compare bounds from a) all limit states vs. b) only unfiltered limit states * Aircraft Model Lower wing skin analyzed, ~900 limit s