A Simple Statistical Estimation of One’s Performance in an MCQ Examination, Based Upon Mock Test Results, Using Binomial Distribution of Probability英文文献资料.docVIP

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A Simple Statistical Estimation of One’s Performance in an MCQ Examination, Based Upon Mock Test Results, Using Binomial Distribution of Probability英文文献资料.doc

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A Simple Statistical Estimation of One’s Performance in an MCQ Examination, Based Upon Mock Test Results, Using Binomial Distribution of Probability英文文献资料

Open Journal of Statistics, 2012, 2, 452-459 /10.4236/ojs.2012.24057 Published Online October 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/ojs) A Simple Statistical Estimation of One’s Performance in an MCQ Examination, Based upon Mock Test Results, Using Binomial Distribution of Probability Sudipto Roy , Priyadarshi Majumdar 1 2* 1 Department of Physics, St. Xavier’s College, Kolkata, India Jyotinagar Bidyasree Niketan Higher Secondary School, Kolkata, India Email: roy.sudipto1@, 2 * majumdar_priyadarshi@ Received June 4, 2012; revised July 8, 2012; accepted July 20, 2012 ABSTRACT A simple statistical model is proposed regarding the estimation of one’s overall performance in an MCQ examination along with the calculation of probability of obtaining a certain percentage of marks in the same. Using the data obtained from the results of a sufficiently large number of mock examinations, conducted prior to the main examination, certain parameters quantifying one’s knowledge or preparation for the examination has been calculated. Based on those pa- rameters, the probability of obtaining a certain percentage of marks has been computed using the theory of binomial probability distribution. The dependence of this probability function on various parameters has been depicted graphi- cally. A parameter, called the performance index, has been defined in terms of the expectation value and standard de- viation of marks computed from probability distribution. Using this parameter, a new parameter called the relative per- formance index has been defined. This index estimates one’s performance with respect to the best possible performance. The variation of relative performance index with respect to the preparation index has been shown graphically for dif- ferent parameter values quantifying various aspects regarding the examination and the examinee. Keywords: MCQ; Preparation Index; Kno