retirementage〔关于退休年龄争议〕.ppt

Retirement age 陈颖 2012.11.19 Why to extend the retirement age 1. Life expectancy is extended Population structure has changed Aging populations is coming 2.Shortage of pensions Life expectancy---anticipated age Population structure and aging population In 1999,the population above sixty years old is 130 million,10.2% of the total population. By 2010,the number is 178 million,13.26% of the total population. When it comes to 2050,we will have 480 million people aging sixty and above ,1/3 of the total population and becoming one of the countries which have the highest aging population. By 2050, the labor force between 15 and 59 will decline to 710 million,230million lesser than 2010. Population structure and aging population We will have 1.4 billion people in 2040.The number of People over sixty is 411 million. People between 20 and 60 will decline from 817 million to 696 million. People between 20 and 40 will decline from 436 million to 302 million, falling by more than 30% By 2050 ,the generation after 80’s and 90’s will be “younger old men”, there will be 100 million’s “elder old men” over 80 years old. About the pensions Three parameters: Replacement rate(替代率）： the pension you get after the retirement accounts for how much of your salary on the job Payment rate（缴费率）: how much money you should pay for your pension insurance according to your salary Retirement age About the pensions Replacement rate: below 50%(average),above 80%(utility) Payment rate:28% Retirement age:60(men) 50(women) Constitution of pension insurance Individual account or personal account (empty account and devalue) Social pooling account Shortage of pension (Individual account ) By the end of 2011,the book value of the individual account is 2.5 trillion ,but the amount of the empty account is 2.23 trill