5、投资者心态模型 分析.docVIP

Rabin进一步认为，人存在自我控制问题，但何时意识到这一问题存在呢？后者对决策更重要。根据对自我控制问题的意识程度不同，人们可分为三类： 成熟型(sophisticated)。这类人充分意识到自身存在自我控制问题，并且倾向于准确预测未来的行为。 幼稚型(naive)。这类人根本没有意识到自身存在的自我控制问题，会错误地预测自己未来的行为。 偏幼稚型(partially naive)。这类人能够意识到自身的自我控制问题，但低估这一问题造成的影响。 拉宾通过一个修正的贴现效用模型讨论了三种自我控制问题： 式中表示自我控制问题，说明人们偏好的不稳定。特别是，当时，未来的效用的现值更小，说明即使经过贴现，人们仍然偏好现在的消费。即人们不愿等待。 Some Specific Applications Consumption-Saving Decisions Laibson (1994, 1996, 1997, 1998), Laibson et al (1998), and Angeletos et al (2001,) consider the role of self-control problems for consumption-saving decisions. The main effect of having self-control problems is over-consumption, or equivalently under-saving. Sophisticated self-control problems are better able to explain things such as people’s liquid asset holdings (relative to monthly income and relative to illiquid asset holdings), consumption income comovement, drops in consumption at retirement, and high credit-card debt. Moreover, they claim that their conclusions would be the same if they were to consider naive self-control problems instead of sophisticated self-control problems. Addiction O’Donoghue and Rabin (1999d, 2000b), Gruber and Koszegi (2001), and Carrillo (1999) consider the role of self-control problems for addiction. One key feature of harmful addictive products such as cigarettes is that current consumption creates future costs, and hence the decision whether to consume boils down to whether the current desire to consume outweighs the future cost of this consumption. Because self-control problems make a person more prone to conclude that current consumption is worthwhile, the main effect of self-control problems is a tendency to over-consume addictive products. More, an addicted person might suffer severe harm because she procrastinates quitting — she wants to quit, and always plans to quit in the near future, but never gets around to it. 投资者行为 授课文献： Meir Statman，2002，“ A century of investors”，Santa Clara University Leavey School of Business ，working paper, May 2