A Metapopulation Model of Tuberculosis Transmission with a Case Study from High to Low Burden Areas 英文参考文献.docVIP

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A Metapopulation Model of Tuberculosis Transmission with a Case Study from High to Low Burden Areas 英文参考文献.doc

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A Metapopulation Model of Tuberculosis Transmission with a Case Study from High to Low Burden Areas 英文参考文献

AMetapopulationModelofTuberculosisTransmission withaCaseStudyfromHightoLowBurdenAreas RoslynI.Hickson1,2*,GeoffryN.Mercer1,KamaliniM.Lokuge1 1NationalCentreforEpidemiologyandPopulationHealth,AustralianNationalUniversity,Canberra,Australia,2SchoolofMathematicalandPhysicalSciences,University ofNewcastle,Newcastle,Australia Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) is a growing problem worldwide, especially with the emergence and high prevalence of multidrug- resistant strains. We develop a metapopulation model for TB spread, which is particularly suited to investigating transmissionbetweenareasofhighandlowprevalence.Acasestudyofcross-bordertransmissionintheTorresStraitregion ofAustraliaandPapuaNewGuinea(PNG)isconsideredandasensitivityanalysisisconducted.Wefindthatonly6ofthe50 parametersanalysedareimportanttothecumulativenumberofclinicallyactiveTBpatientsintheentireregion.Ofthese, onlythedetectionrateinPNGisfoundtobeanimportantinterventionparameter.Wethereforegiveinsightintotheextent the area with the high burden of TB (PNG in the case study) is dominating the TB dynamics of the entire region. Furthermore,thesensitivityanalysisresultsgiveinsightintothedatathatmostimportanttocollectandrefine,whichis foundtobedatarelatingtothePNGparameters. Citation: Hickson RI, Mercer GN, Lokuge KM (2012) A Metapopulation Model of Tuberculosis Transmission with a Case Study from High to Low Burden Areas.PLoSONE7(4):e34411.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0034411 Editor:MadhukarPai,McGillUniversity,Canada ReceivedSeptember27,2011;AcceptedMarch2,2012;PublishedApril4,2012 Copyright: ? 2012 Hickson et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding:TheAustralianNationalUniversityhasprovidedfundingintheformofsalaryfortheauthors.Thefunderhadnoroleinstudydesign,datacollection andanalysis,decisiontopublish,orpreparationofthemanuscrip