A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain 英文参考文献.docVIP

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A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain 英文参考文献.doc

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A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain 英文参考文献

AModelingFrameworktoDescribetheTransmissionof BluetongueViruswithinandbetweenFarmsinGreat Britain CamilleSzmaragd1¤*,AnthonyJ.Wilson1,SimonCarpenter1,JamesL.N.Wood2,PhilipS.Mellor1 ,Simon Gubbins1 1InstituteforAnimalHealth,PirbrightLaboratory,Pirbright,Surrey,UnitedKingdom,2CambridgeInfectiousDiseasesConsortium,DepartmentofVeterinaryMedicine, UniversityofCambridge,Cambridge,UnitedKingdom Abstract Background:Recentlymuchattentionhasbeengiventodevelopingnational-scalemicro-simulationmodelsforlivestock diseasesthatcanbeusedtopredictspreadandassesstheimpactofcontrolmeasures.Thefocusofthesemodelshasbeen ondirectlytransmittedinfectionswithlittleattentiongiventovector-bornediseasessuchasbluetongue,aviraldiseaseof ruminantstransmittedbyCulicoidesbitingmidges.YetBThasemergedoverthepastdecadeasoneofthemostimportant diseasesoflivestock. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:Wedevelopedastochastic,spatially-explicit,farm-levelmodeltodescribethespreadof bluetonguevirus(BTV)withinandbetweenfarms.Transmissionbetweenfarmswasmodeledbyagenerickernel,which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated basedonthenumberofcattleandsheepkeptonthefarmandonlocaltemperatures.Parameterestimateswerederived fromthepublishedliteratureandusingdatafromtheoutbreakofbluetongueinnorthernEuropein2006.Themodelwas validatedusingdataonthespreadofBTVinGreatBritainduring2007.Thesensitivityofmodelpredictionstotheshapeof thetransmissionkernelwasassessed. Conclusions/Significance:ThemodelisabletoreplicatethedynamicsofBTVinGreatBritain.Althoughuncertaintyremains overthepreciseshapeofthetransmissionkernelandcertainaspectsofthevector,themodelingapproachwedevelop constitutesanidealframeworkinwhichtoincorporatetheseaspectsasmoreandbetterdatabecomeavailable.Moreover, themodelprovidesatoolwithwhichtoexaminescenariosforthespreadandcontrolofBTVinGreatBritain. Citation:SzmaragdC,WilsonAJ,CarpenterS,WoodJLN,MellorPS,etal.(2009)AModelingFrameworktoDescribethe