Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models 英文参考文献.doc

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Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models 英文参考文献

DeterminantsoftheIncidenceofHand,FootandMouth DiseaseinChinaUsingGeographicallyWeighted RegressionModels MaoguiHu1*.,ZhongjieLi2.,JinfengWang1,LinJia3,YilanLiao4,ShengjieLai2,YanshaGuo5, DanZhao2,WeizhongYang2* 1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, 2Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early-Warning, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China, 3ChineseResearch Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China, 4Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing, China, 5Institute of Computing Technology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing,China Abstract Background: Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughoutmostoftheWest-PacificRegioncountries,causingthousandsofdeathsamongchildren.However,fewstudies haveexaminedpotentialdeterminantsoftheincidenceofHFMD. Methods:ReportedHFMDcasesfrom2912countiesinChinawereobtainedforMay2008.ThemonthlyHFMDcumulative incidence was calculated for children aged 9 years and younger. Child population density (CPD) and six climate factors (average-temperature [AT], average-minimum-temperature [ATmin], average-maximum-temperature [ATmax], average- temperature-difference[ATdiff],average-relative-humidity[ARH],andmonthlyprecipitation[MP])wereselectedaspotential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associationsbetweentheselectedfactorsandHFMDincidenceatcountylevel. Results:Therewere176,111HFMDcasesreportedinthestudiedcounties.Theadjustedmonthlycumulativeincidenceby countyrangedfrom0.26casesper100,000childrento2549.00per100,000children.ForlocalunivariateGWRmodels,the percentageofcountieswithstatisticalsignificance(p,0.05)betweenHFMDincidenceandeachofthesevenfactorswere: CPD 84.3%, ATmax 54.9%, AT 57.8%, ATmin 61.2%, ARH