FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model 英文参考文献.docVIP

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FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model 英文参考文献.doc

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FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model 英文参考文献

FluTE,aPubliclyAvailableStochasticInfluenzaEpidemic SimulationModel DennisL.Chao1*,M.ElizabethHalloran1,2,ValerieJ.Obenchain1,IraM.Longini,Jr.1 1Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases/Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America, 2Department of Biostatistics,SchoolofPublicHealth/UniversityofWashington,Seattle,Washington,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Mathematicalandcomputermodelsofepidemicshavecontributedtoourunderstandingofthespreadofinfectiousdisease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics,wedevelopedanewstochasticmodelofthespreadofinfluenzaacrossalargepopulation.Individualsinthis modelhaverealisticsocialcontactnetworks,andtransmissionandinfectionsarebasedonthecurrentstateofknowledge ofthenaturalhistoryofinfluenza.Themodelhasbeencalibratedsothatoutcomesareconsistentwiththe1957/1958Asian A(H2N2)and2009pandemicA(H1N1)influenzaviruses.Wepresentexamplesofhowthismodelcanbeusedtostudythe dynamicsofinfluenzaepidemicsintheUnitedStatesandsimulatehowtomitigateordelaythemusingpharmaceutical interventionsandsocialdistancingmeasures.Computersimulationmodelsplayanessentialroleininformingpublicpolicy andevaluatingpandemicpreparednessplans.Wehavemadethesourcecodeofthismodelpubliclyavailabletoencourage itsuseandfurtherdevelopment. Citation:ChaoDL,HalloranME,ObenchainVJ,LonginiIM,Jr.(2010)FluTE,aPubliclyAvailableStochasticInfluenzaEpidemicSimulationModel.PLoSComput Biol6(1):e1000656.doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000656 Editor:AngelaR.McLean,UniversityofOxford,UnitedKingdom ReceivedJuly17,2009;AcceptedDecember22,2009;PublishedJanuary29,2010 Copyright: ? 2010 Chao et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute