Forest Structure and Roe Deer Abundance Predict Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Italy 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Forest Structure and Roe Deer Abundance Predict Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Italy 英文参考文献.doc

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Forest Structure and Roe Deer Abundance Predict Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Italy 英文参考文献

ForestStructureandRoeDeerAbundancePredictTick- BorneEncephalitisRiskinItaly AnnapaolaRizzoli*,HeidiC.Hauffe,ValentinaTagliapietra,MarkusNeteler,RobertoRosa` FondazioneEdmundMach-CentroRicercaeInnovazione,Micheleall’Adige,Italy Abstract Background: The Western Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus often causes devastating or lethal disease. In Europe, the number of human TBEcases has increased dramatically over the last decade, risk areas areexpanding andnew foci are beingdiscoveredeveryyear.TheearlylocalisationofnewTBEfociandtheidentificationofthemainriskfactorsassociated with disease emergence represent a priority for the public health community. Although a number of socio-economic parametershavebeensuggestedtoexplainTBEupsurgesineasternEurope,theprincipaldrivingfactorsinrelativelystable westernEuropeancountrieshavenotbeenidentified. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this paper, we analyse the correlation between the upsurge of TBE in 17 alpine provincesinnorthernItalyfrom1992to2006withclimaticvariables,foreststructure(asaproxyforsmallmammalreservoir hostabundance),andabundanceoftheprincipallargevertebratetickhost(roedeer),usingdatasetsavailableforthelast 40 years. No significant differences between the pattern of changes in climatic variables in provinces where TBE has emerged compared to provinces were no clinical TBE cases have been observed to date. Instead, the best model for explainingtheincreaseinTBEincidenceinhumansinthisareaincludechangesinforeststructure,inparticulartheratioof coppicetohighstandforest,andthedensityofroedeer. Conclusion/Significance: Substantial changes in vegetation structure that improve habitat suitability for the main TBE reservoir hosts (small mammals), as well as an increase in roe deer abundance due to changes in land and wildlife managementpractices,arelikelytobeamongthemostcrucialfactorsaffectingthecirculationpotentialofWesternTBE virusand,consequently,theriskofTBEemergenceinhumansinwesternEurope.Webelieveourapproachwillbeusefuli