基于故障树分析的安全投资决策方法研究.pdfVIP

浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版) 第 33 卷第6 期 Vo 1.33 No.6 2014 年 11 月 Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University(Natural Science) Nov. ,2014 文章编号: 1008-830X (2014) 06-0576-07 .研究简报· 基于故障树分析的安全投资决策方法研究 张华文 (浙江海洋学院石化与能源工程学院，浙江舟山 316022 ) 摘 要:有研究表明增加安全投资能提升安全生产水平。合理地确定安全投资总额、比例及方向，有助于企业以有限地 投入获得最佳的安全效果和经济效益。本文首先分析了安全投资决策的主要问题，认为效益分析是安全投资决策的重要环 节，即要比较安全投入与产出的关系。以价值工程理论中利益一成本分析方法为基础，引人故障树分析的基本概念及相 关定性、定量分析过程，探讨了故障树分析在安全投资决策中的应用，实例研究结果表明通过故障树分析能够得到比较满意 和优化的投资方案，有助于综合权衡安全投入和安全效果，为安全投资决策问题提供了新的途径。 关键词:故障树分析:安全投资;决策;安全效益 中圄分类号: F224 文献标识码:A 学科分类与代码:620.2050 Research 00 Decisioo-makiog Method of Iovestmeot for Safety based 00 Fault Tree Aoalysis ZHANG Hua-wen (School ofPetrochemical Energy Engineering, Zhejiang Ocean University , Zhoushan 316022, China) Abstract: Researches have indicated that an increase in safety investments can result in the improvement of safety performance , and also will impose a cosÙy burden on the enterprise. So the managers should make decisions with respect to the amount and usage of investments , allowing the trade-off between the invested resources and their safety effects, to obtain the best benefits. In this paper, some critical problems in decision making process were analyzed with a great emphasis played on the importance of traditional cost-benefit analyses. By using the value engineering theory as basis , we then discussed a method to support decision-making of safety investments based on fault tree analysis (FfA) , combining such concepts as top event, basic events and cut sets. 币lfough a case study, this model was demonstrated that it can provide a new and useful tool for the ente甲rise to prop