案例(长文档).doc

需求预测和供应链协调对长鞭效应的影响研究 摘 要 长鞭效应是一种供应链企业中普遍存在的现象, 造成了生产和运营成本增加和巨大的资源浪费。当今企业的竞争归根结底是供应链的竞争, 因此大多数企业都纷纷加强了供应链的协调管理, 然而长鞭效应对企业的经济效益甚至整个供应链的经济会造成严重的影响,多年来一直受到人们的关注, 但直到近年对它才有较为清晰的认识。 企业要提高自身的市场竞争力，必须从整体需求预测角度出发考虑供应链的协调运作情况，促使供应链绩效最大化。而长鞭效应是供应链的实际运作中出现的一个主要问题，长鞭效应的存在会造成库存增加、信息延迟、顾客满意度降低等不良后果，造成供应链绩效降低，导致供应链失调。本文通过文献综述, 结合X酒店实例从以下三个部分研究需求预测和供应链协调对长鞭效应的影响，一、需求预测和供应链协调对长鞭效应的积极影响；二、需求预测和供应链协调对长鞭效应的负面影响；三、改进需求预测和供应链协调对长鞭效应影响的对策和建议。通过X酒店实例研究供应链中长鞭效应的现象和成因, 提出改进需求预测和供应链协调的方法来减弱长鞭效应的建议以及进一步的研究方向。 关键词：需求预测；供应链协调；长鞭效应 Research on restraining bullwhip effect based on demand forecast and supply chain coordination Abstract The bullwhip effect badly affects the enterprises even whole country. It has been being noted and studied for many years, and have not been cognized more clearly until the recent year. Supply chain management is a kind of effective approach for enterprise to adapt global competition, in order to improve its competition and maximize the supply chain performance, the enterprise should consider the harmonious operation of the supply chain as a whole. However, bullwhip effect is a main problem of supply chain which can produce bad results, such as stock increase, information delay, customer satisfaction reduction and so on. These results can induce maladjustment of supply chain.This paper based on some literatures, combined with X hotel examples from the following three parts research demand forecasting and supply chain coordination on the influence of the bullwhip. Firstly, the demand forecast and the supply chain coordination on the positive influence of bullwhip; Secondly, demand forecasting and supply chain coordination on the negative effect of the bullwhip; Thirdly, improve the method of demand forecast and supply chain coordination Suggestions. Through the case study of X hotel bullwhip phenomenon and causes, and put forward the improvement the demand forecast and the supply chain coordination method to weaken the bullwhip advice and points out the further res