博迪投资学第八版课件Chap017.pptVIP

CHAPTER 17 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Figure 17.10 A Stylized Depiction of the Business Cycle Sector Rotation Portfolio is adjusted by selecting companies that should perform well for the stage of the business cycle Peaks – natural resource extraction firms Contraction – defensive industries such as pharmaceuticals and food Trough – capital goods industries Expansion – cyclical industries such as consumer durables Figure 17.11 Sector Rotation Stage Sales Growth Start-up Rapid Increasing Consolidation Stable Maturity Slowing Relative Decline Minimal or Negative Industry Life Cycles Figure 17.12 The Industry Life Cycle Industry Structure and Performance Threat of entry Rivalry between existing competitors Pressure from substitute products Bargaining power of buyers Bargaining power of suppliers 17-* Bodie, Kane and Marcus Slides by Susan Hine McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis: Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use the top-down approach? Framework of Analysis Performance in countries and regions is highly variable Political risk Exchange rate risk Sales Profits Stock returns Global Economic Considerations Table 17.1 Economic Performance in Selected Emerging Markets Figure 17.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: U.S. Dollar versus Major Currencies, 1999–2006 Gross domestic product Unemployment rates Interest rates inflation Budget deficit Consumer sentiment Key Economic Variables Figure 17.2 SP 500 Index versus Earnings Per Share Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economy Demand Shocks Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs Supply Shocks Federal Government Policy Fiscal Policy: Demand-side management Tax rate cut Increases in government spending Federal Government Policy Continued Monetary Policy - Demand-side managem