微软用户-DemandForecasting（需求预测）.pptVIP

As an example, the tracking signal for week 3 in the table above is found by dividing the running sum of errors as it stands in week 3 (3) by the estimate of MAD in week 3 (2.33). This value comes out to be 1.29. Because a tracking signal is a ratio of the cumulative error produced by individual forecasts to the average deviation of those forecasts from their actual values, it typically “tracks” forecasts to see if they stay within a similar pattern to the corresponding demand. Companies often use the relationship between MAD and the standard deviation to establish limits for the tracking sig