两种实用的洪灾损失频率分析方法.pdfVIP

2006 尔 2 月 系统工程理论与实践 第 2 期 文章编号:1 ∞0-6788(2ω6)02恤0127-06 两种实用的洪灾损失频率分析方法 邢虎相1 ， 2 ，付 强2 ，芮孝芳l (1.河海大学水资源环境学院，江苏南京 21ω98;2. 东北农业大学水利与建筑学院，黑龙怔哈尔棋 150030) 摘要: 为了提高洪灾损失频率分析方法的计算精度、速度和可操作性，利用基于信息扩散理论的风险 分析方法和2辈子实数编码的遗传算法确定参数估计的频率分析法(Pill 曲线)对洪灾损失频率进行分析， 前者弥补了观测样本信息不足的缺陷，而厨者克服了传统配线法精度低的缺点，体现了遗传算法的全局 寻优能力.实例证明，这两种方法思路清晰，操作简单、通用性强、速度快、精度高，对防洪减灾均具有较 好的指导作用.并可推广到其它灾情的风险分析，如气象、地摆等. 关键词: 洪灾损失;信息扩散;加速遗传算法;频率分析 中图分类号: TV122.9 文献标识码: A Two Practical Methods on the Analyses of Inundation Loss Frequency J 2 1 XING Zhen-xiang ,2 ~ FU Qiang , RUI Xiao-fang (1. College of Water Resources and Envíronment , Hohaí Uníversity , Nanjing 21∞98 ， Chína; 2. College of Water Con随rvancy and Architecture , No巾east A伊icultw咀1 Universíty , Harbin 15∞30 ， China) Abstract: In order ωimprove the speed , accuracy and operabilíty , the method of risk analysis based on informatÌon diffuse theory and the method of frequency analysis bωed on real codìng based on accelerating genetic algorithm by 胃hich p町ameters of Person mcurve were estimated were tried to be used to analyze the inundation 10部公equency w，刷 刷alyzed. The former method makes good 阳 fault that lacking of enough observation data; then the latter one overcomes the defect that tradítìonal methods have low accuracy , embodies the capabilìty of whole optímízation. The example demonstrates these two methods are cl阳出ínking ， easy and quick to operate , high commonalíty and accuracy. 白le two methods can gnide to prevent