房屋价格上对我国居民消费的影响因素研究.doc

本科毕业设计(论文) 题 目： 房屋价格上涨对我国居民消费的影响因素研究实证部分 院 系: 专 业： 学 号： 姓 名： 导 师： 摘 要 1998年，我国住房制度发生变革，市场化房屋买卖制度取代了传统的福利分房制度，二十多年间，房地产价格在总体上保持不断上涨的趋势。在经济新常态下，粗放式经济逐渐被结构化经济所取代，释放消费潜力，使消费继续在推动经济发展中发挥基础作用仍然十分重要。2015年11月，房地产业的去库存政策提出，也是旨在平稳房地产市场，激发房地产市场带动消费增长的潜力。房地产市场涉及生产、消费、投资三个方面，健康稳定的房地产市场对于经济的发展意义重大。房地产价格的上涨一方面促进了经济的增长，另一方面过高的房价也将抑制消费者的消费能力。因此，研究我国房地产价格波动对消费的影响可以指导政府推出更加合理的政策，以促进房地产市场的健康发展，发挥消费带动经济增长的积极作用。 本文总结了国内外学者的研究成果，以传统消费理论和房地产财富效应为基础，选取成本推动，供给短缺、需求拉动各变量对中国居民消费的影响。对实证结果进行分析可以得出结论:中国房地产价格的上涨会对国内消费产生负效应，但负效应不显著。 关键词：房地产价格，消费，财富效应 ABSTRACT In 1998, Chinas housing system has changed, and then the marketing system of housing gradually replaced the welfare-oriented system based on distribution of public housing. In the past twenty years, real estate price keeps rising in general. In the process of Chinas New Normal for economy, the extensive way of economy is gradually taken place of by the structural economy. As a result, potential consumption gets to be free, and consumption continues to play a fundamental role in promoting economic development.In November, 2015, the policy of reducing real estate inventory was established in order to ensure a stable real estate market and stimulate the potential of consumption growth driven by the real estate market. The real estate market involves in production, consumption, and investment, and a healthy and stable real estate market has great significance to economic development. On the one hand, the higher and higher real estate price can promote economic growth. On the other hand, if the price of real estate is too high, it will also inhibit consumers power of consumption. Therefore, the study on how the fluctuation of real estate price has influence on consumption may have government enacted little more reasonable policies, so as to accelerate the healthy development of the real estate market,and go on playing an active role in consumer-driven economic growth.. Key words：Real estate priceConsumption，Weal