剩余收益模型.ppt

Residual Earnings Model and DCF Approach（！！！） 在前面的例子中，我们看到剩余收益模型计算的价值与现金流量折现法计算的价值是相同的。 The foercasts of RE have captuerd the value added over the cost of the investment. 剩余收益模型的优点、缺点 Advantages Focus on value drivers: focuses on profitability of investment and growth in investment that drive value; directs strategic thinking to these drivers Incorporates the financial statements: incorporates the value already recognized in the balance sheet (the book value) Uses accrual accounting: uses the properties of accrual accounting that recognize value added ahead of cash flows, matches value added to value given up and treats investment as an asset rather than a loss of value Versatility: can be used with a wide variety of accounting principles (Chapter 16) Aligned with what people forecast: analysts forecast earnings (from which forecasted residual earnings can be calculated) Validation: forecasts of residual earnings can be validated in subsequent audited financial statements Predictability: dividends are usually fairly stable in the short run so dividends are easy to forecast (in the short run) Disadvantages Accounting complexity: requires an understanding of how accrual accounting works Suspect accounting: relies on accounting numbers that can be suspect (Chapter 17) Forecast horizon: forecast horizons can be shorter than for DCF analysis and more value is typically recognized in the immediate future; also, forecasts up to the horizon give an indication of profitability and growth for a continuing value calculation; but the forecast horizon does depend on the quality of the accrual accounting (Chapter 16) 剩余收益模型对投资者的提醒：（1）Protection from Paying Too Much for Earnings Generated by Investment The firm is expected to make a share issue of $50 in Year 1 .Required return is 10 percent per year. Forecast Year 0 1