模糊数学在交通拥堵状态评价中的应用大学论文.doc

模糊数学在交通拥堵状态评价中的应用 摘 要 交通拥堵已成为困扰当前的难题我国的机动车拥有量及道路交通流量急剧增加，日益增长的交通需求与城市道路基础设施建设之间的矛盾已成为目前城市交通的主要矛盾，由此导致交通拥挤和堵塞现象频频发生交通拥堵严重地影响了人们的日常出行活动，制约着城市经济的发展 本文通过调查和分析，建立了交通拥堵模糊评价模型。综合行程速度、行程延误、停车次数、停车时间以及负荷度五种评价指标，对江门市区路网实际调研的数据进行回归拟合分析，确定每种指标的评价参考标准，最终形成科学的交通拥堵模糊评价模型，根据交通拥堵指数的概念评价城市路网的拥堵严重程度。 利用本文的模型，可以通过采集到的交通数据，实现对城市路网的定性和定量分析，得出相应路网的交通拥堵系数的大小，确定每个路网的拥堵严重程度，为交通管理部门提供科学合理的依据。 关键词 交通拥堵；状态评价；模糊；评价指标；交通拥堵指数 Abstract Traffic congestion has become a problem of the current situation of city development, traffic congestion in many city at home and abroad is still relatively serious, vehicle our capacity and traffic flow increases rapidly, the contradiction between the increasing traffic demand and city road infrastructure construction has become the main contradiction of the city traffic, causing traffic congestion and blocking phenomenon occurred frequently. Traffic congestion has seriously affected peoples daily trips, restricts the development of city economy. Through the investigation and analysis, established the fuzzy evaluation model of traffic congestion. Then set the evaluation index such as Travel speed, Travel delay, the frequency of parking, parking time and the degrees of the sections. Regression analysis on the data of practical research of Jiangmen’s urban area, determine the evaluation of each index reference standard, eventually forming the fuzzy evaluation model of traffic congestion, and puts forward the concept of traffic congestion index, to evaluate the evaluation of traffic congestion state model. Using this model, the traffic data can be collected, realize the qualitative and quantitative analysis of city road network, draw the corresponding road network traffic congestion index size, determines each network congestion severity, provide scientific and rational basis for the traffic management department. Keywords traffic congestion; evaluation; fuzzy; evaluation index; traffic congestion index 目 录 摘 要 I Abstract II 第1章 绪论 1 1.1 课题背景 1 1.2 研究的目的和意义 1 1.3