变化环境下超定量及年最大值洪水序列频率分析模型对比研究.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2013, 2, 51-58 doi:10.12677/jwrr.2013.21008 Published Online February 2013 (/journal/jwrr.html) Comparative Study between POT and AMS Flood Frequency Analysis Models under Changing * Environment Lijuan Zhang1,2, Xiaohong Chen1,2#, Changqing Ye1,2, Jiaming Zhang1,2 1Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China, Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou Email: zhanglj8809@, #eescxh@ Received: Nov. 12th nd th , 2012; revised: Dec. 2 , 2012; accepted: Dec. 16 , 2012 Abstract: Taking the daily average discharge of Lishi (2) station in the Wujiang river basin for an example, two flood frequency analysis models, respectively based on peaks-over-threshold (POT) and annual maxi- mum series (AMS), are compared. POT model has better flexibility describing floods and the flood generat- ing process than AMS model; thus is suitable for flood frequency analysis under changing environment. Threshold selection approaches are applied to choose the threshold value, which is tested by the relationship of estimated results of parameters of the POT model and designed floods with changing thresholds afterwards. The POT samples are fitted by the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrival. Compare POT model based on the GP distribution and AMS model based on the