外来入侵物种的风险评估定量模型及应用要点分析.pdf

ActaEntomologica Sinica, May 2007, 50(5): 512- 520 ISSN 0454-6296 * 王雅男, 万方浩 , 沈文君 ( , , 100094) : , ,, , ,,, : ; ; ; ; : Q968 : A : 0454-6296( 2007)05-0512-09 Review of quantitative models for risk assessment of invasive alien species * WANG Ya-Nan, WAN Fang-Hao , SHEN Wen-Jun (TheState KeyLaboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100094, China) Abstract: It is widely acknowledged that risk assessment has become an indispensable part of controlling of biological invasion. Therefore, there is a pressing need to formulate scientifically sound methods and approaches of quantitative model in this emerging field. This paper reviewed a few new predictive modeling techniques, called genetic algorithm, fuzzy envelopemodel and self-organising map, which are usedtopredict potential distribution of organisms. Meanwhile, integrodifference equation models, cellular automata and neutral landscape models, which dealwith thespread of populations, were also introduced and discussed. Key words: Invasive alien species; risk assessment; models; potential distribution; dispersal (, 2002) 1 , , , ,(, 2004) , , (Stohlgren and Schnase, 2006) ( FAO, 2003) (risk assessment)(risk , analysis), , , ; , (Andersen et al., 2004) ,, : 973 (2002BC111400) ; (2003D1B3J108) : , , 1982 ,,,,E-mail: ilatl * Author for correspondence, E-mail: wanfangh Received: 2006-12-07; Accepted: 2007-04-11 5