基于现金流量的财务预警实证分析以医药行业为例doc.doc

本 科 毕 业 论 文 基于现金流量的财务预警实证分析 ——以医药行业为例 —— Taking Pharmaceutical Industry for Example 学 院： 商学院 专业班级： 会计学 会计101 学生姓名： 陈宁宁 学 号： 061002105 指导教师： 薛淑娟（讲师） （） 2014 年 6 月 毕业论文中文摘要 基于现金流量的财务预警实证分析 ——以医药行业为例 摘 要：医药行业作为新兴的朝阳产业，科技含量高。医药开发前期需要大量的研发资金，生产时也需要达到国家的质量标准，总体来说，行业竞争压力很大。因此，该行业在生产经营过程中，面临着各种各样的经营风险，如果不及时加以防范，很可能会出现企业财务危机，最终导致破产。由于医药行业的特点，比如，长时间的临床实验，过高的销售费用等，使得现金流量与医药行业的财务风险、财务危机紧密相关，在医药类上市企业财务危机预警中起非常重要的作用。本文选择了我国医药行业企业2012年的数据，根据其行业自身特点，构建以基于现金流量财务指标为基础的指标体系。借助spass19，用因子分析的方法挑选出6个具有代表性的因子，建立logistic回归模型。本文采用2013年的数据对该模型进行检验，最后对该行业2014年的财务情况进行预测 关键词：医药行业；现金流量；财务危机预警；因子分析；logistic回归模型 毕业论文外文摘要 Empirical Analysis on Financial Earlyarning based on the Cash Flow ——Taking Pharmaceutical Industry for Example Abstract: As a promising, rising industry, the pharmaceutical industry is abundant with science and technology. Because of a large sum of research fund in the initiative -phase of the research and the strict quality demand of the China’s policies during drug-processing, this industry is faced with tremendous competition, outside and inside. Different kinds of operating risks will gradually involve into a financial crisis, even bankruptcy, threatening all pharmaceutical enterprises, if due attention and corresponding adoptions are ignored. The cash flow of pharmaceutical industry, typical of long-period clinical trials and high expenses is interconnected with financial risks and crisis, playing an important role in financial early-warning in this industry. The data of the year of 2012 is chosen to construct the indicator system based on the cash flow indicators according to the characters of the industry. Through Factor Analysis, 6 main factors are selected from all the indicators to build the regression model of Logistic with the software of SPSS. The data from the year of 2013 is used to examine the accuracy of the model so that we can m