重庆大气汞人为排放及其预测.pdfVIP

第 24 卷第8 期 环境科学研究 Vol. 24 ,No. 8 2011 年 8 月 Research of Environmental Sciences Aug. ,2011 重庆大气亲人为排放及其预测 张成1 气杨永奎2 ，王定勇2 ， 3. 1.重庆大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室，重庆 4创附45 2. 西南大学资源环境学院，重庆 4∞716 3. 重庆市农业资源与环境研究重点实验室，重庆 4∞716 摘要t 利用排放因子法和灰色预测法对重庆大气柔人为排放进行了研究.重庆大气柔人为排放量从 1997 年的 6.18 t 增 加到 2∞8 年的 13.47 t. 重庆自 1997 年成为直辖市以来，大气柔排放量累计达 99.76 七年均增长率为 9.82% ，其中燃煤和 水泥生产柔排放量分别达到.34 和 22. 37ι 以 1997-2∞8 年重庆大气乘人为排放数据为依据，运用灰色系统理论建立 GM( 1 ， 1) 大气柔人为排放预测模型，预测了 2∞9-2015 年重庆大气录排放趋势.如果不采取控制措施，预计2015 年重庆 大气柔人为排放量约 30.92 t ，年均增长率将高达 16.20% . 关键词:重庆:录:人为源:排放因子;灰色预测法 中圄分类号: X5 1 文献标志码:A 文章编号: 1ω1 -6929(2011)08 -0904 -05 Estimation and Prediction of Atmospheric Mercury Emissions from Anthropogenic Sources in Chongqing l 2 2 3 ZHANG Cheng • , Y ANG Yong-kue , W ANG Ding_yong . 1. Key L尬。ratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Regions Eco-Environment , Ministry of Education , Chongqing University , Chongqing 4α则45 ， China 2. College of Resources and Environment , Southwest University , Chongqing 4ω716， China 3. Chongqing Key Lab of Agricultural Resources and Environment , Chon阴ing 4ω716 ， China Abstract: Atmospheric mercuη(Hg) emissions from anthropogenic sourc饵 in the city of Chongqing were investigated using the methods of emission factors and grey prediction. Annual Hg emissions were estimated 10 increase from 6. 18 t in 1997 10 13.47 t in 2∞8 ， with an average annual growth rate of 9. 82%. The total accumulated Hg emissions were 99.76 t. Coal combustion and cement production , which were 由e largest contribu协rs ， accounted for 58. 34 t and 22. 37 t , respectively. 8ased on the estimation results from 1997 to 2∞8 ， an anthropogenic emission model for atmospheric mercury GM ( 1 , 1) w