考虑随机约束的电网优化运行及风险管理.pdfVIP

  1. 建立了系统的对于含间歇性能源电力系统的运行模型以及风 险管理算法，实际的电力系统调度者可以参照本模型和算法 得出的结果做出经济性和风险兼顾的运行计划； 2. 风险贡献度模型可以应用于系统中有多种随机风险而需要采 取精确定量的风险管理手段的情况，可以针对不同风险值的 大小确定相应风险管理手段的力度。 本课题是在科技部 863 项目（2007AA05Z458 ）的资助下完成的。 关键词：随机约束、系统运行、风险管理、市场手段、风险贡献度    POWER SYSTEM OPERATIONAL SCENARIO AND RISK MANAGEMENT BASED ON STOCHASTIC CONSTRAINTS   ABSTRACT  The infrastructure of power system is becoming more and more complex along with its development. Some components of it are uncertain, which will lead to stochastic constraints. Such as unplanned outage and repair of generators and transmission lines, the forecast errors and inaccuracies of load demand and the power of intermittent energy, and the possible load fluctuate caused by electrical vehicle in the future smart grid time and V2G technology. These stochastic constraints will bring obstacles to power system operation management, and will influence the safety, reliability and economic of the system as well. This paper discusses the different types of stochastic constraints in power system, analyzes their sources, features, and gives corresponding solutions, especially for the growing penetration of intermittent energy into the power system. After discussing the sources of these stochastic constraints, this paper mainly introduces the following two parts: 1. Presents a unit commitment model based on the penetration of intermittent energy, using wind as an example. VaR and Integrated Risk Management (IRM) are ad