War or Peace Over TAIWAN？论文.docVIP

　　War or Peace Over TAIWAN？论文 .freelilitary conflict in the Taiay be judged by ans to Taiay be unlikely until after the first decade of the neillennium ，butit more probably could happen after the year 2010.） 2）At an earlier time ，in the near future ，do mutually beneficial termsexist for an interim truce across the strait，alloent later？ 3）Even if mutually res for such a truce exist，do the elitesin Taipei and Beijing have structures that can bring them actually to negotiateit？ 4）any scholars -including some in both Beijing andTaipei -expect China to remain clearly unable to use force to assert its Tai for more than a decade at least.Recent journalism in Taipei cites the date2010as a likely time of crisis in island-mainland relations.By about that time，many researchers of various political vieilitary shortingsilitary costs to countries aiding Taiee period after 2010，China far more effectively than at present.Thiseffectiveness is delayed currently by specific military difficulties the PLA ight start ，by US kno，and by Taiilitary and economic proean that the atically.As the US discovered in Somalia and earlier in Vietnam ，superpoely effective.But Beijings top politicians think over timethey it resources to oppose Beijing then.The US ore representative or the PRC offers Taiy s can be guaranteed by Taie on Taiay eventually rescind its assertion thatthe island is Chinese.Taipire to break up，although feeasures ）。The chance that PRC elites ely lo e themunist Party e.The Party may go on ，orit may be over.But practically all mainland elites -in government or in dissent-agree that Taiocratization is seen by some mainland conservatives as a threat to theiros to Taiists，hoay vieocratization as important only if the island isChinese.Many in China are keenly envious of Taiic，political，andcultural successes.Tai probably undermines the munistParty ，more than it persuades mainlanders that Taihas historically e in many forms ，and in China （like Germany，Russia ，andJapan ）nationalis