项目管理07.pptVIP

Risk Management Chapter 7 Risk Risk management - the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk factors throughout the life of a project and in the best interest of its objectives. Project risk – any possible event that can negatively affect the viability of a project Risk Vs Amount at Stake Phase 1 Conceive (C) Phase 2 Develop (D) Phase 3 Execute (E) Phase 4 Finish (F) Time $ Value Increasing Risk Total Project Life Cycle Amount at stake Plan Produce Opportunity and risk Period of highest risk impact Combined risk impact Process of Risk Management What is likely to happen? What can be done? What are the warning signs? What are the likely outcomes? Project Risk = (Probability of Event)(Consequences of Event) Four Stages of Risk Management Risk identification Analysis of probability and consequences Risk mitigation strategies Control and documentation Risk Clusters Financial Technical Contractual/Legal Commercial Execution Common Types Absenteeism Resignation Staff pulled away Time overruns Skills unavailable Ineffective Training Specs incomplete Change orders Risk Factor Identification Brainstorming meetings Expert opinion Past history Multiple (or team based) assessments Risk Impact Matrix Consequences Likelihood High Low Low High Project Risk Scoring Identify factors and assess the probability (Pf ) and consequences (Cf) of failure Calculate overall probability consequence Calculate overall risk factor Risk Mitigation Strategies Accept Minimize Share Transfer Contingency Reserves Task contingency Managerial contingency Mentoring Cross training Control Documentation Help managers classify and codify risks, responses, and outcomes Change management report system answers What? Who? When? Why? How? Project Risk Analysis Management Extends risk management over project’s life cycle Key Features of PRAM Risk management follows a life cycle Risk management strategy changes over the project life cycle Synthesized, coh