乌鲁木齐物流需求现状及发展趋势研究.pdf

乌鲁木齐物流需求现状及发展趋势研究 摘 要 随着经济全球化发展趋势，物流业的发展不仅局限在本土，而是突破国界与国际贸 易紧密结合，成为互通有无、互惠互利的重要载体，呈现出加速发展的趋势。近年来乌 鲁木齐市政府对发展现代物流业十分重视。本人以《乌鲁木齐市物流发展规划》中的物 流需求分析为目标，对相关单位及政府有关部门进行了认真的前期调查，收集了大量的 历史和现实数据，在参考大量文献、总结和借签前人分析研究经验的基础上，撰写了《乌 鲁木齐物流需求现状及发展趋势研究》论文。本文在总结国内外物流现状和发展趋势的 基础上，对乌鲁木齐物流现状进行了详细的调查和分析，从不同角度对乌鲁木齐社会经 济发展现状、物流环境现状、物流基础设施现状、物流需求现状等方面进行进行了定性 分析，并作出了评价；选择货物运输量作为反应未来物流需求量的量化指标，应用指数 回归模型、灰色预测模型和非线性优化组合模型对综合货运量、不同运输方式的货运量 做了初步的预测和分析，较近似地得出了从2009-2020 年乌鲁木齐物流需求量的估计值； 提出了乌鲁木齐物流需求现状中存在的问题及对策建议，为乌鲁木齐物流中长期规划提 供运输能力的供给能不断满足货物运输需求的依据，保证物流供给与需求之间的相对平 衡，使市区物流活动保持高效率低成本运作。 关键词：乌鲁木齐；物流现状；物流需求预测；回归分析；灰色模型 I Study on the Demand Real situationand Development Trend of Urumqi Logistics Abstract As the continuous development of economy, the increase of commodity circulation stimulates the rapid development. In recent years, Urumqi Government pays more important attention to the urban logistics. This paper makes the prediction of logistics demand in Urumqi Logistics Development Planning as the goal. On the basis of collecting a lot of historic and current data, summarizing and making reference to the result from predecessor, this paper of Study on the Demand Real situation and Development Trend of Urumqi Logistics was finished. On the basis of summarize real situation and development of domestic and foreign logistics, this paper makes a detailed investment and analysis to Urumqi logistics real situation, making a qualitative analysis and evaluation to the real situations of societal and economic development, logistics environment, logistics demand, and logistics infrastructure; selecting the freight quantity as the quantitative indicator