大型发电机组可靠性预测方法及应用.pdf

第 47 卷第 18 期 机 械 工 程 学 报 Vol.47 No.18 2 0 1 1 年 9 月 JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Sep. 2 0 1 1 DOI ：10.3901/JME.2011.18.165 大型发电机组可靠性预测方法与应用* 史进渊 (上海发电设备成套设计研究院 上海 200240) 摘要：提出发电机组可靠性预测的数学模型和预测方法。该方法在统计分析发电机组运行可靠性历史数据的基础上，确定检 修系数的统计值与数学模型的待定参数。根据发电机组的计划检修天数与检修系数的数学模型，预测今后 3 年发电机组的等 效可用系数。给出亚临界 300 MW、超临界 600 MW、亚临界 600 MW 火电机组和 550 MW 水电机组以及 984 MW、990 MW 核电机组的可靠性预测实例。这些发电机组等效可用系数预测值的相对误差的范围是–1.48%～2.69% ，表明可靠性预测的精 度比较高。应用发电机组的可靠性预测方法，可以定量计算发电机组可靠性指标的预测值，为发电机组的可靠性目标管理和 优化检修提供依据。 关键词：发电机组 可靠性 等效可用系数 可靠性预测 中图分类号：TM621 Reliability Prediction Methods and Application of Large Capacity Generating Units SHI Jinyuan (Shanghai Power Equipment Research Institute, Shanghai 200240) Abstract ：A mathematical model of the reliability prediction of generating units is presented, together with the reliability prediction method. Based on statistical analysis of operation reliability past data for generating units, statistical values of the repair factor and the mathematical model’s parameters of the repair factor are determined. According to plan repair outage days and the mathematical model for the repair factor of a generating unit, equivalent availability factor (EAF) of the generating unit could be predicted in future three years. The reliability prediction examples for sub-critical 300 MW, supercritical 600 MW and sub-critical 600 MW fossil units are given together with reliability prediction results of 550 MW hydro units and 984 MW, 990 MW nuclear units. The relative error’s range for equivalent availability factor prediction values of the generating units is between –1.48% to 2.69% which indi