河北省城乡居民消费结构变动研究.pdf

摘 要 摘 要 消费关系到全国人民的切身利益，是人们社会生活的重要内容，在未来的社会经济 发展中，消费将成为不可或缺的重要角色。目前，河北省正处在经济转型时期，城乡一 体化发展迅猛，深入研究城乡居民消费结构问题，对河北省城乡二元经济的发展具有重 大意义。本文以分析河北省城乡居民消费结构现状为出发点，采用定量分析的方法，将 河北省城镇居民消费支出分为两个阶段，农村居民消费支出分为三个阶段，对河北省城 乡居民消费结构进行灰色关联性分析，并对消费结构进行预测分析，针对河北省城乡居 民消费结构存在的问题和造成原因，立足城镇和农村两个方面，从宏观和微观两个角度， 提出未来河北省城乡居民消费结构优化升级的相关对策和建议。其中，对河北省居民消 费结构的变动趋势，运用灰色关联分析，从实证角度探寻了河北省居民消费结构的变动 规律，得出在 1993 年-2009 年之间，河北省城镇居民家庭设备及服务和医疗保健类支 出变化较明显，居住和交通通讯类支出略有波动；河北省农村居民消费支出中，居住、 家庭设备、交通通讯、文教娱乐类消费支出变动幅度较大，食品、衣着类消费支出有小 幅度波动。对河北省居民消费结构的预测，运用马尔科夫链预测方法，得出未来几年河 北省居民消费结构的趋向。 关键词 居民消费结构 灰色关联分析 马尔科夫链预测 I Abstract Abstract Consumption is very important in our social life, which is related with the vital interests of the people. It will play an indispensable role in the future. Nowadays, Hebei is facing a great change in economy, and the urban-rural integration develops rapidly. So studying the urban and rural residents consumption structure is significant for urban and rural economic development. Based on the analysis of Hebei ’s dual consumption structure, this paper uses the method of quantitative analysis to divide the urban residents’ consumption expenditure into two stages, and the rural residents’ consumption expenditure into three stages. Then it will give a grey relevancy analysis about the urban and rural residents consumption structure, and also will give a forecast analysis about consumption structure. To the problems and reasons, also based on the urban and rural, the paper will put forward some suggestions about the upgrading of Hebei’s urban and rural consumption structure in macroscopical an