河北省消费与投资的均衡性分析.pdf

摘要 摘 要 消费与投资对经济增长的影响一直是国家关注的重点，消费与投资就像是跷跷板的 两头，只有均衡调节才会一直处在理想状态，合理的消费与投资比例会带动经济协调发 展，消费与投资相辅相成，投资增长对消费起到主导性引导。不合理的消费与投资比例 会严重影响到经济的增长，消费与投资比例失衡会影响到经济的协调发展，对于消费与 投资比例失衡应当引起足够重视。 本文首先对居民收入增长率下降、居民收入差距、消费倾向偏低、农村居民收入影 响消费率的因素和高储蓄率、政府主导性投资超常增加、固定资产高速增长、人口年龄 结构影响投资的因素进行定性分析，然后用状态空间模型得出消费与投资系数对消费与 投资进行定量分析，得出现阶段投资率的变动大于消费的变动，通过建立误差修正模型 得出上期地区生产总值的提高程度相对于消费投资系数增加值水平来说偏低，所以为了 提高地区生产总值就必须要协调好消费与投资比例之间的关系，最后本文对优化消费投 资比例提出对策建议。对优化消费的对策建议包括关注工资制度，提高居民收入；调节 收入分配,缩小收入差距；拉动消费,提高居民消费倾向；增加农村居民收入，扩大消费 需求。对优化投资的对策建议包括降低高储蓄率，将储蓄转化为投资；优化政府主导性 投资，提高投资效率；适当调节投资方向，优化投资结构；发展老年基金，减少储蓄。 关键词 消费 投资 均衡 消费与投资系数 状态空间模型 I Abstract Abstract Consumption and investment have been the focus of influence on economic growth, both consumption and investment is like a seesaw, only the balance adjustment would have been in good condition, rational ratio of consumption and investment will lead to economic development, complementary to consumption and investment, investment growth in consumption has played a leading guide. Unreasonable ratio of consumption and investment will seriously affect the economic growth, consumption and investment imbalance will affect the coordination of economic development, so we should pay sufficient attention to consumption and investment imbalance. First of all, this article analyze the factors of influencing the consumption ,which residents income growth rates decline, income gaps, low consumption ,farmers income; and affecting the investment ,which high savings rates, increased government investment of supernormal