运营管理3的.ppt

Outline Global Company Profile: Tupperware What is Forecasting? Forecasting Time Horizons The Influence of Product Life Cycle Types of Forecasts The Strategic Importance of Forecasting Human Resources Capacity Supply-Chain Management Seven Steps in the Forecasting System Outline - Continued Forecasting Approaches Overview of Qualitative Methods Overview of Quantitative Methods Time-Series Forecasting Decomposition of Time Series Na?ve Approach Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Trend Projections Seasonal Variations in Data Cyclic Variations in Data Outline - Continued Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression and Correlation Analysis Using Regression Analysis to Forecast Standard Error of the Estimate Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines Multiple-Regression Analysis Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts Adaptive Smoothing Focus Forecasting Forecasting in the Service Sector Learning Objectives Learning Objectives - continued When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Describe or Explain: Moving averages Exponential smoothing Trend projections Regression and correlation analysis Measures of forecast accuracy Forecasting at Tupperware Each of 50 profit centers around the world is responsible for computerized monthly, quarterly, and 12-month sales projections These projections are aggregated by region, then globally, at Tupperware’s World Headquarters Tupperware uses all techniques discussed in text Three Key Factors for Tupperware The number of registered “consultants” or sales representatives The percentage of currently “active” dealers (this number changes each week and month) Sales per active dealer, on a weekly basis Tupperware - Forecast by Consensus Although inputs come from sales, marketing, finance, and production, final forecasts are the consensus of all participating managers. The final step is Tupperware’s version of the “jury of executive opinion” What is Forecasting? Types of Foreca