不确定需求垂直分离及b电力b市场结构.pdfVIP

No. C2008001 2008-02 不确定需求、垂直分离与电力市场结构  汪 浩 北京大学中国经济研究中心 No. C2008001 2008 年 2 月 17 日 不确定需求、垂直分离与电力市场结构 摘要：本文考虑一个在发电和零售环节均为完全竞争的电力市场，电力以线性价 格销售给用户，总需求不确定。模型表明，如果企业的发电量与边际发电成本之 间的协方差为正，即两个随机变量之间有正的线性关联度，那么在短期均衡中， 垂直分离使得零售电价升高，消费者剩余减少。而在长期均衡中，垂直分离导致 发电企业的过度进入，不仅使电价提高，还造成社会福利的损失。因此本文认为， 在输配电业务从传统的电力企业独立出去后，发电和零售仍然应实行垂直一体 化。该结论对我国正在进行的电力体制改革有一定参考意义。 关键词：需求不确定，电力市场，垂直一体，垂直分离 JEL 分类码：L22, L51, L94 Demand Uncertainty and Vertical Separation in a Competitive Electricity Market Abstract: This paper considers a perfectly competitive electricity market. The aggregate demand is uncertain. Electricity is sold to consumers via linear prices. The case where generators directly sell to consumers (vertical integration) and the case where generators sell through independent retailers (vertical separation) are discussed. It is found that when the covariance between the electricity output and the marginal generation cost is positive, vertical separation leads to higher price to consumers in the short run. In the long run, vertical separation induces excess entry to the generation sector. It leads to not only higher electricity price, but also lower social surplus. The paper thus suggests that governments should encourage vertical integration between generation and retailing in electricity markets. Keywords: Demand uncertainty; Electricity market; Vertical integration; Vertical separation JEL Classification: L22, L51, L94 一．引 言 电力作为一种商品，具有与其它商品显著不同的特点，例如，电力基本不可 储存，供求必须实时平衡，短期需求弹性甚小，需求和供应均具有一定的不确定 性等。由于电力对社会经济的极端重要性和电网的自然垄断特征，电力行业在