第6章必讲 际平价关系与汇率预测.pptVIP

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT;INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT;套利是为了获得一定的收益，同时买进和卖出相同或具有等价值的资产或商品的行为。当市场均衡时，市场不存在套利机会。像利率平价和购买力平价是产生套利均衡的条件。;Chapter Outline;Interest Rate Parity;Interest Rate Parity Defined;Interest Rate Parity Carefully Defined;IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage （抵补套利）;IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage;Interest Rate Parity  Exchange Rate Determination;Arbitrage Strategy I;Arbitrage Strategy II;IRP and Hedging Currency Risk;Forward Market Hedge;Forward Market Hedge;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Reasons for Deviations from IRP;Transactions Costs Example （时间允许才讲）; ;Transactions Costs Example （时间允许才讲）; ;Purchasing Power Parity;Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination;Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination;Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination;Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination;Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity;Expected Rate of Change in Exchange Rate as Inflation Differential;Expected Rate of Change in Exchange Rate as Interest Rate Differential;Quick and Dirty Short Cut;汉堡包货币;汉堡包货币;相对购买力平价; 实际汇率 如果购买力平价不成立，则实际汇率不等于1。例如，如果美国年通胀率为5%，英国的年通胀率为3.5%，美元相对英镑贬值4.5%，则实际汇率为0.97：q=1.05/(1.045*1.035）=0.97，美元的贬值超过了购买力平价范围，从而增强了美国工业在世界市场的竞争力。当然，如果美元的贬值小于通货膨胀率差异，实际汇率大于1，从而削弱美国的工业竞争力。可概括如下：q=1: 本国竞争力不变； q1: 本国竞争力增强； q1: 本国竞争力削弱； 加分题：更新国财6版page132 中的图和数据（国财5版page121），同时有网址或者获得数据具体途径，要达到按图索骥的效果。还要加上韩国、金砖五国（Brazil，Russia，India，China and South Africa）和西方主要发达国家???数据和图。 这个可以写篇研究论文 ;Evidence on PPP; EXHIBIT 6.8 A Guide to World Prices: May 2010 Prices include sales tax and value added tax except in the united States location. ; 加分题：更新国财6版page133表中的数据（国财5版page122表6-3），同时有网址或者获得数据的具体途径，要达到按图索骥的效果。;Evidence on PPP;United St