PredictingandExplainingIndividualPerformanceinComplex分析.pptVIP

Predicting and Explaining Individual Performance in Complex Tasks Marsha Lovett, Lynne Reder, Christian Lebiere, John Rehling, Baris Demiral Multi-Tasking A single person can perform multiple tasks. A single model should be able to capture performance on those multiple tasks. A single person brings to bear the same fundamental processing capacities to perform all those tasks. A single model should be able to predict that person’s performance across tasks from his/her capacities. A way to keep the multiple-constraint advantage offered by unified theories of cognition while making their development tractable is to do Individual Data Modeling. That is, to gather a large number of empirical/experimental observations on a single subject (or a few subjects analysed individually) using a variety of tasks that exercise multiple abilities (e.g., perception memory, problem solving), and then to use these data to develop a detailed computational model of the subject that is able to learn while performing the tasks. ZERO PARAMETER PREDICTIONS! Basic Goals of Project Combine best features of cognitive modeling Study performance in a dynamic, multi-tasking situation (albeit less complex than real world) Explain not only aggregate behavior but variation (using individual difference variables) Predict (not fit/postdict) complex performance Use cognitive architecture and fixed parameters Employ off-the-shelf models whenever possible Plug in individual difference params for each person How to predict task performance Estimate each individual’s processing parameters Measure individuals’ performance on “standard” tasks Using models of these tasks, estimate participant’s corresponding architectural parameters (e.g., working memory capacity, perceptual/motor speed) Build/refine model of target task Select global parameters for model of target task (e.g., from previously collected data) Plug into model of target task each individual’s parameters to predict his/her target task perfo