天水市人口合理容量的测算及分析.doc

天水市人口合理容量的测算与分析 王小刚 （西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院 甘肃兰州 730070） 摘要：在国家大力推进关中—天水经济区建设战略目标下，天水市的城市化将会呈现快速的发展。和所有的城市一样，在城市快速发展的同时，城市人口规模的不断扩大势必会给天水市的发展带来一定的负面影响，因为城市的核心是人，城市发展的动力和阻力也是人[1]。如何使天水市人口与资源、环境、经济得到协调的可持续的发展是一个重大的，有意义的课题，而对于一个像天水市这样一个西部半干旱地区的河谷城市而言合理的人口容量是城市健康发展的前提条件。本文从天水市的自然资源、社会经经济状况、生态环境三方面选择多个要素进行天水市未来人口容量的预测及分析，得出如下结论：天水市的适度人口为63.8万人，而城市建设用地和生态环境是影响天水市城市发展的短板要素。 关键词：天水市； 计算方法； 人口合理容量 he population Capacity of the Reckon and Analysis of a reasonable in Tianshui Wang Xiaogang (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070) Abstract: Vigorously promote the relations in the country - Tianshui the strategic goal of economic zone, the city of Tianshui City, will show a rapid development. And all the cities, rapid development in the city, the urban population will exert a growing scale of the development of Tianshui City, brought a negative impact, because the core of the city people, urban development, power and resistance is also a human [1 ]. Tianshui city how to make the population and resources, the environment, the economy and sustainable development of coordination is a major, meaningful issues, but for someone like Tianshui City, a semi-arid areas of the Valley of western cities in terms of population capacity is reasonable a prerequisite for the healthy development of the city. This article from the Tianshui Citys natural resources, socio-economic conditions, ecological environment to select multiple elements of three of Tianshui City in the capacity of future population projections and analysis, the following conclusions: Tianshui City of optimum population was 63.8 million, while urban construction space and ecological environment is affecting the development of Tianshui city short board elements. Key words: Tianshui City Calculation Reasonable capacity of the population 城市社会经济的最佳发展,在客观上存在一个适度、合理的人口承载量[2]。随着我国着力打造建立关中——天水经济区，天水市的人口规模将会不断扩大，增长速度也日益加快，这种变化一方面会给城市的发展带来更多的劳动资源，创造出更多的社会财富，为城市发展增添了活力和动力，另一方面也因