business Cycle最终.ppt

MADE BY AUDREY VICTORY Cycle 由NordriDesign™提供 Page  2 DEFINITION Business cycle (or economic cycle or boom-bust cycle) refers fluctuations in aggregate production, trade and activity over several months or years in a market economy. LOGO The businese cycle allows the people to understand the direction the economy(GDP)is going [increase or decrease ] and plan accordingly. Page  3 The economy follows the BUSINESS CYCLE regularly! Page  4 4 Phases of Business cycle 1.Expansion (growing) 2.Peak (top) 3.Contraction (shrinking) 4.Trough (Bottom) Page  5 1.expansion 2.peak 3.contraction 4.trough Page  6 Page  7 经济衰退（Recession），指经济出现停滞或负增长的时期。不同的国家对衰退有不同的定义，但美国以经济连续两个季度出现负增长为衰退的定义被人们广泛使用。而在宏观经济学上通常定义为“在一年中，一个国家的国内生产总值（GDP）增长连续两个或两个以上季度出现下跌”。但是这个定义并未被全世界各国广泛接受。比如，美国国家经济研究局就将经济衰退定义成更为模糊的“大多数经济领域内的经济活动连续几个月出现下滑”。凯恩斯认为对商品总需求的减少是经济衰退的主要原因经济衰退的普遍特征：消费者需求、投资急剧下降；对劳动的需求、产出下降、企业利润急剧下滑、股票价格和利率一般也会下降 Page  8 经济萧条 长时期的高失业率、低产出、低投资、企业信心降低、价格下跌和企业普遍破产。工商业低落的一个温和的形式是衰退（recession），它同萧条有许多共同点，但在程度上较弱。今天，衰退的精确定义是实际国民生产总值至少连续两个季度下降。 Page  9 what keep business cycle going? 1.Businese Investment 2.Interest Rates and Credit 3.Consumer Expectations 4.External Shocks Page  10 extra expand! 额外拓展~ 成因[The causes of business cycle] 战争{war}、革命{revolution}、选举{ election}、金矿或新资源的发现{new resources get!}、科学突破或技术创新{create new technology}等等{and so on}。 Page  11 let us welcome VICTORY WANG~ tell us about History!!!! (误) Page  12 Reason of talking about history Page  13 1929——1933 Does anyone know what happened during this period? Exactly!!!! Economical crisis!! 经济危机 Lasted the longest time in the history of America Now , lets talk about the details!!! Page  14 1929 June the industry of America was in the peak of the business cycle October, horrible thing happened! Page  15 The deepest influence 1929\10\24 THE BLACK THURSDAY Before this day , the economy kept increasing until got into the peak. only after one night , the stock market broke. And enconomy started decre