“黑天鹅式”生存(国外英文资料).docVIP

“黑天鹅式”生存(国外英文资料) When the butterfly flaps its wings, people know what will happen: a storm in the Mississippi valley, or Edward? Lorentz first said: it could cause a tornado in Texas a month later. But when black swans flap their wings, do they know what will happen? Anyway, I know, people dont know anything! Or another way of saying it: anything is possible. Before the discovery of Australia, the europeans of the 17th century thought that swans were white. Black swans was once the europeans idioms in speech and writing, is used to refer to something impossible, but with the emergence of the first black swan, the unshakable faith collapsed. The black swans presence implies an unpredictable and important rare event, which is unexpected, but changes everything. Black swans are unpredictable in both market expectations and government decisions. The 9/11 attacks, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, and Chinas snowstorms. In life, randomness is everywhere, and in the capital markets. People always explain unpredictable events in their own limited life experience and fragile beliefs. Even calculating professionals cant be fooled by randomness, but what we should do is to accommodate this unknowable future. Mystery of the black swan The butterfly and the black swan are the unpredictable future, but the opposite is true of the world. Lets take a closer look at the difference -- The butterfly effect is easier to show in a western ballad: To lose a nail, to break a shoe; A horseshoe was broken, and a horse was broken; He broke a horse and wounded a knight; Wounded a knight and lost a battle; Losing a battle and losing an empire. Academic point, chaos in the butterfly effect, refers to the nonlinear systems, a slight variation in the initial conditions, and can lead to unpredictable consequences after system chain reaction. And the black swan effect? As taleb puts it in black swan: Imagine the night before the events of 1914, and your understanding of the world will help you gu