全概率公式与贝叶斯公式英文文献.docxVIP

A Bayesian ruleBiass Law (Bayestheorem/Bayes theorem/Bayesian law) Bias was a basic tool called Biass law, although it is a mathematical formula, but the principle can be understood without digital. If you see a person always do some good, then that person will probably be a good man. That is to say, when cannot accurately knows the essence of a thing, can how much depends on the specific nature of the events and things appear to judge the nature of probability. It is expressed in mathematical language: support a property of the event of the possibility, the attribute set is big.The basic concept贝叶斯法则又被称为贝叶斯定理、贝叶斯法则是概率统计中的应用所观察到的现象对有关概率分布的主观判断（即先验概率）进行修正的标准方法。所谓贝叶斯法则，是指当分析样本大到接近总体数时，样本中事件发生的概率将接近于总体中事件发生的概率。但行为经济学家发现，人们在决策过程中往往并不遵循贝叶斯规律，而是给予最近发生的事件和最新的经验以更多的权值，在决策和做出判断时过分看重近期的事件。面对复杂而笼统的问题，人们往往走捷径，依据可能性而非根据概率来决策。这种对经典模型的系统性偏离称为“偏差”。由于心理偏差的存在，投资者在决策判断时并非绝对理性，会行为偏差，进而影响资本市场上价格的变动。但长期以来，由于缺乏有力的替代工具，经济学家不得不在分析中坚持贝叶斯法则。Biass law is also known as the Bias theorem, Biass law is the application of probability and statistics of the observed phenomena on subjective judgments about the probability distribution (i.e., prior probability) standard correction method. The so-called Bayesian rule, when analyzing samples to close to the overall number, probability sample of events will be close to the overall probability of events. But the behavioral economists found, people in the decision-making process is often not followed by Bayesian rule, but given recent events and the latest experience with more weight, recent events have too much weight to make judgments in the decision-making and. In the face of the complex and the general questions, people often take shortcuts, on the basis of probability rather than according to probability decision. System of this classic model called deviation deviation. Because of the psychological bias, investors are not in decision making when absolutely rational, behavior deviation, and the impact of price changes on the capital market. But for a lo