2016美国大学生数学建模竞赛优秀论文.docxVIP

For office use onlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________Team Control Number45596?Problem ChosenEFor office use onlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2016 MCM/ICMSummary SheetIn a bid to assess whether a region has the ability to supply water to meet the demand, we establish an evaluation model of water-supplying ability based on Grey Model Theory. On the basis of previous research, we select 18 indicators from social, economic, environmental and technological aspects, all of which can affect a region’s water-supplying ability significantly. Considering relevancy among indicators, as well as their dynamic variation, we utilize Grey Relational Analysis to determine the weight of every indicator. Therefore, we define Carrying Capacity Sustainability (CCS), Carrying Capacity Pressure (CCP) and Carrying Capacity Index (CCI) to evaluate a region’s ability comprehensively.We select Shandong, China as our target region in following research. After acquiring data of every indicator, we calculate the value of CCI of Shandong is 1.238 in 2004, which is classified to be overloaded. According to the score of every indicator, we give explanations for water scarcity from both economic and physical perspectives.Afterward, based on Grey Prediction Model, we make prediction of Shandong’s water situation in the following 15 years. Tendency of CCI shows improvement of water-supplying ability, but the scores of some indicators show the situation of citizens’ water usage goes worse. We notice Population Size and other 6 indicators contributes most to water-supplying ability in this region. Taking them into account, we design intervention plan targeted at this region. Meanwhile, we also present the effects on surrounding areas, together with strengths and drawbacks of plan in a qualitative way.With the help of Grey Prediction Model and Intervention Factor Model, we forecast water situation after the plan is carried o